SWINGING WITH THE POLLS

The surprise announcement that the latest Morgan public opinion poll showed an increase in electoral support for the Fraser Government, and comments by both Mr. Fraser and his deputy, Mr. Doug Anthony, stimulated increased speculation that there could be an early poll after all. Labor's lead of 11 percent in the late September poll has been reduced to 2 percent.

As the government has done nothing to warrant increased support, while the economy continues to decline, the most likely explanation is that Mr. Fraser capitalised on the national euphoria associated with the Commonwealth Games, making certain that he was photographed with Australian athletes. There is also the probability that Mr. Fraser has stolen much of Labor's thunder on the tax avoidance issue, creating the impression that he is a strong man, prepared even to resist many of his own supporters in his determination to deal with "tax cheats".
All the major parties are now in agreement concerning retrospective legislation, with many distressed electors believing that as there is no real difference between the parties, they may as well stick with the devil they know.

A careful reading of what Mr. Hayden, Mr. Hawke and other Labor spokesmen are saying reveals not the slightest indication of any constructive alternative to the programme of depression being imposed upon the Australian people. The best that Mr. Hayden can say is that he would be a more ''responsible economic manager'' than the present Government. But he is, like Mr. Fraser in 1975, attempting to prepare the electorate for the bitter experience, if they do elect him that it will take years to fix the economy. Six or seven years are mentioned.

The truth is that benefits could start to flow to people immediately from a genuinely alternative policy. If, for example, the new credits being created to finance the growing deficit, were issued debt free, for the cost of administration only, and applied to a system of consumer discounts similar to those used during and after the Second World War, while at the same time Sales Tax on basic items was abolished, the total purchasing power of the people would be increased immediately while at the same time ending inflation.
There would be increased demand for consumer goods with a beneficial effect on the whole economy.

While insisting that he is going to continue with his "tight" financial policy, allegedly to keep on "fighting" inflation, Treasurer John Howard has in his last budget made it certain that inflation will be even higher during the latter part of this year. The Victorian Chamber of Manufactures is projecting an inflation rate of 15 percent for the period before Christmas. If Mr. Fraser's election strategy were to call an early poll before the full effects of the Fraser-Howard budget were felt, that strategy would be badly dented. We have not the slightest doubt that Mr. Fraser would like an early election if at all possible.

In the absence of a specific issue, not unless the Labor Party provides him with one, Mr. Fraser and Mr. Howard are attempting to out wit the Labor Party on the tax issue while at the same time rushing through legislation for the establishment of the National Crimes Commission, this being done in spite of protests from the States. An appearance of standing up to organised crime is regarded as a vote winner at the present time.. Much will depend, of course, upon how electors vote in the coming South Australian elections.

But, irrespective of when the next Federal elections are held, there is growing body of frustrated electors with contempt for the politicians, and is deeply concerned about the erosion of traditional community standards and the corruption in high places. For what it is worth, the Morgan poll also shows an increase in support for the Australian Democrats and Independents, this being in our opinion a manifestation of a protest vote.

Senator Chipp's party offers no more solutions that the other parties. But it has served to break up power in the Senate. What we would like to see is the development of a non-party patriotic movement, which in the Senate could more adequately represent electors who are looking for genuine alternatives. The future of Australia may well be decided by the Senate. /td>

Jeremy Lee reports from Auckland, New Zealand

"The New Zealand Prime Minister, Mr. Muldoon, has recently returned from a regional CHOGM, and is expressing concern at the world debt crisis. His assessment is realistic, his answers disastrous.
In a lengthy article in the N.Z. weekly The Listener, he dealt contemptuously with Australia's John Howard: "The Australian Treasurer, John Howard, said of Muldoon's warnings that predictions of catastrophe tend to be self-fulfilling. (Said Muldoon) "That's a cliché from Howard. It has no relevance."

The New Zealand Prime Minister quoted the following figures: "During 1982, says the P.M. it is estimated that interest payments and maturing bank loans will amount to:
The Philippines, $7 billion, 76 percent of export income;
Venezuela, $19.8 billion, 95 percent;
Brazil $29.1 billion, 105 percent;
Chile $6.1 billion, 115 percent;
Mexico $38.7 billion, 120 percent;
Argentina $15.6 billion, 138 percent..

Muldoon's warnings were confirmed by a supplementary feature, "Merchant Banking '82", in The Far Eastern Economic Review, Sept 24th: "...The Financial Times reported in July that a confidential Bank for International Settlements (BIS) paper had suggested that $US 200 billion of outstanding debt is of dubious quality. (In plain English, 'bad debt' - J.L.).
Notwithstanding this, banks may have little alternative but to accommodate LDC requests for fresh loans to finance interest and rescheduled timetables for principal payment... In 1974 only three countries were in arrears in their external debts to the amount of $US 500 million. The figure is now in excess of $US 6.5 billion from 25 countries. Many commercial banks are beginning to wish they had never left home... The one option not open to lending banks is to cut and run. Although some 45% of LDC debt has a maturity of less than 12 months it is inconceivable that even a tenth of this could be paid save from the proceeds of new loans..."

Mr. Muldoon, with the support of Malcolm Fraser, is urging a re-vamping and strengthening of the International Monetary Fund to meet the crisis. He has made it utterly plain and clear what this entails: "The original IMF rules implied some loss of sovereignty - but most nations joined. We were late in joining for that reason. It was only when we needed it, in 1961 ... that we said OK we'll go to the Fund .... It does involve loss of sovereignty…."

BRIEF COMMENTS

The humbug and hypocrisy, not to mention juvenile pettiness, of the Fraser Government is demonstrated by granting permission of Qantas Airways to fly direct from Australia to Zimbabwe, thus allegedly shunning the dreadful South Africans. But at the same time arrangements have been made with South African airways to pick up passengers from Qantas in Zimbabwe and bring them on to South Africa. Qantas has opened an office in Johannesburg to cater for the anticipated flood of passengers from South Africa. And so the reality is that one can fly Qantas to get to South Africa, only the trip is a little longer. In the meantime black African states fly their planes direct to South Africa, and Australian trade with South Africa has doubled since the Fraser Government came to power. Cannot someone tell Mr. Fraser to grow up and stop acting like a small, spoilt boy.

Former American Secretary of Defence, Mr. Robert McNamara, mainly responsible for representing the disastrous American no-win policy in Vietnam, and recently resigned as President of the World Bank, has been in South Africa lecturing the South Africans on how they are threatened by "black nationalism" unless they mend their wicked ways. There is no such thing as "black nationalism"; the basic reality of Africa is tribalism. Mr. McNamara is the voice of those supra-national forces, which seek to create the New International Economic Order and the World State. His threat that South Africans can expect no help from the United States or elsewhere if a race war occurs is part of the psycho-political warfare being waged against South Africa. Black Africans do not threaten South Africa; it is those who manipulate the blacks who are the threat.