SOUTH AFRICA CAN REJECT RHODESIAN ROAD

The South African election results have produced a cry of pain from Left Liberals everywhere. Predictably, the Communist dominated African National Congress said that there would now be increasing violence. Tambo and his colleagues do not point out that most of their terrorist activities will continue to be directed against those Africans who cooperate with the South African Government, being more concerned about economics than ideology Archbishop Tutu says that South Africa has "entered the darkest age in its history."

The strategy of the liberals inside South Africa was to increase the support of the Progressive Federal Party, which could then promote defections in the ruling National Party to form some type of "reformist alliance." This strategy relied upon the Independents, not opposed by the Progressive Federal Party, playing a major role in shattering the unity of the National Party. But this strategy fell to pieces with a massive electoral backlash against the Left Liberals with the New Republicans being wiped out and the Progressive Federalists lost a third of their seats. Only one Independent was successful. For the first time in South African politics, there was a major shift by the English speaking South Africans to a more conservative position.

Beyond doubt the most significant aspect of the South African Elections was the emergence of the Conservative Party, headed by Andries Trurnicht, as the opposition. It was not only the increase in the Conservatives' parliamentary representation, which reflected the strong swing to conservatism, but the big increase in votes for Conservative candidates, who, in many electorates, were only a few votes away from winning. The big increase in the Conservative vote is going to increase the pressure on the National Party, many of whose Members privately are sympathetic to the Conservatives. The Left Liberal commentators are correct when they bemoan that the real winner in the South African elections was Dr. Trurnicht.

But what of the future? The shape of things to come is indicated in an article in The Age, Melbourne, of May 11th, in which Allister Sparks, writing from Johannesburg, says, "White South Africans have chosen the path of Ian Smith. By their lurch to the right last wednesday's election they have demolished the hope that the country's racial conflict might be resolved by peaceful constitutional means." Sparks then develops the theme that South Africa will finish like Rhodesia. This theme ignores the basic fact that Rhodesia was defeated, not primarily by black violence, but by treachery in which the South African government played a part. Rhodesia was vulnerable economically. But South Africa is not. Its Achilles heel is adherence to finance economic orthodoxy.

If the Conservative Party comes to grips with this question, and modify national financial policy to permit South Africa's vast economic resources to be mobilised and promote a programme of self-determination for both whites and blacks along the lines envisaged by the late Dr. Verwoerd, they can not only save themselves, but strike a major blow in the defence of the whole of the Western world.

TOWARDS ONE PARTY DICTATORSHIP IN ZIMBABWE

Comrade Robert Mugabe, the former terrorist who came to power in the little African nation once known as Rhodesia as a result of the misguided activities of Malcolm Fraser and other Commonwealth leaders, continues to run true to form. His first step towards a one party State was to invite the Stalinist North Korean Communists to train the notorious Fifth Brigade, which brutally butchered the Matabele in Western Zimbabwe. Fellow terrorist, Joshua Nkomo, was forced to flee the country for a period. His support comes from the Matabele, an offshoot of the Zulus. Nkomo felt that his wife and family would be safer living in British Columbia, Canada. They felt much safer in Rhodesia when Ian Smith was Prime Minister.

Now comes the news that Mugabe has entered into an expensive deal with the Soviet Union to provide him with the Soviet's latest MIG fighters. This means spending millions of limited foreign reserves. But as Zimbabwe continues to be heavily subsidised by the West, Mugabe no doubt hopes that the West will continue to help sustain him. As there are no Zimbabwe pilots capable of flying the Soviet MIG fighters, this raises the question of whether Soviet or other pilots will have to be provided.

A new and most ominous development is taking place in Southern Africa. This comes at a time when Mugabe makes the final step towards the establishment of the one party state. The recent suspension of former Prime Minister Ian Smith from the Parliament for 12 months marks the beginning of the end for European representation in the Zimbabwe Parliament. Mr. Smith was suspended because he dared to criticise the policy of sanctions against South Africa. Mr. Ian Smith and Robert Mugabe have not spoken since 1981, when Ian Smith publicly criticised Mugabe for his advocacy of a one party state. Ian Smith has voiced his opposition to sanctions because he realises it will badly damage his own country. Smith has said that he believes that beneath the rhetoric, the Government shares his views and will not dare to impose sanctions against South Africa, through which 90 percent of Zimbabwe's trade passes.

Back in 1964, when he became Prime Minister of Rhodesia, Ian Smith said, "I cannot see in my lifetime that the Africans will be sufficiently mature and reasonable to take over." He is quoted in a recent press interview as saying that his predictions had come true. "Black majority rule has proved a disaster." He says it has been a disaster in every part of Africa with the great majority of Africans the main sufferers. Ian Smith says that for Zimbabwe to impose sanctions against South Africa would be an act of "suicide". The Soviet strategists are not worried about what happens in Zimbabwe so long as they can exploit it to their own advantage. They look forward to the elimination of the last remaining European influence in the Zimbabwe Parliament.

The Lancashire House agreement in 1979 guaranteed 20 European seats in the Zimbabwe Parliament until this year. Obviously Ian Smith will never return to sit in the Zimbabwe Parliament. An era has come to an end. Ian Smith was defeated primarily because he failed, until too late, to recognise the nature of the threat against Rhodesia. It was a combination of factors, including that of International Finance, which destroyed Rhodesia as an encumbrance to the advance of the New World Order. If South Africa is to survive, it must study and digest the lessons of the Rhodesian tragedy.

BRIEF COMMENTS

We find it hard to feel any sympathy for ABC journalist Richard Carleton, who was forced to leave South Africa on the eye of the South Africa's elections. South Africa is a nation struggling for survival against international pressures. However any form of censorship is rejected on principle, the fact remains that all nations use it when they feel national interests are threatened. Richard Carleton is a highly professional and competent journalist. He was well aware, therefore, of South African censorship laws as he would be, for example, of Islam's opposition to alcohol if he were reporting from Saudi Arabia. Mr. Carleton saw fit to break South Africa's censorship laws, even doing so while using the broadcasting facilities of the South African Government. Which raises the question of whether Richard Carleton did this deliberately in order to produce a story. The South African bureaucracy can be heavy handed and unimaginative at times. But no one could accuse Richard Carleton of lacking imagination.

The case of American Democratic Presidential candidate Gary Hart graphically exposes the shallowness and superficiality of modern politics. Hart was a creature of the media, and it was the media, which destroyed him. Hart suffered from a character defect, one that would have been exploited if he had been elected President. Generally known as a womaniser, Hart was also a type of compulsive liar. Hart changed his name from Hartpence some years back. He had lied about his age until found out. Large debts are still owing from his 1984 campaign.

Like several other Arab leaders, Colonel Gaddafi of Libya is far from being a loveable man. But just as Libya was "set up" to justify the American air attack, it is necessary to be cautious about the current campaign, headed by the Hawke Government, which claims that Australia is in deep peril if Libya establishes diplomatic links with South pacific nations. The Hawke Government already has diplomatic links with Libya and Australian exports to Libya are considerable. The head of the Libya People's Bureau at Canberra, Mr. Shaban Gasgut, has criticised Mr. Michael Mansell, legal adviser of the Tasmanian Aboriginal Centre, charging that he was an "opportunist" attempting to use Libya. Mansell has claimed that he has been offered official Libyan support for "the Aboriginal struggle." The biggest danger in the South Pacific is the Soviet Union, but there is no campaign concerning the Soviet. The anti-Libya campaign has all the hallmarks of a diversionary campaign, designed to attract attention away from the growing Soviet threat.