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CALCULATING EUROPE'S ARAB FUTURE

by Brian Simpson

September 2008


Leon Bouvier, a widely published US demographer, and sociologist, Donald Hugh Smith, have addressed the demographic issues behind "Europe's Arab Future" (The Social Contract Spring 2006, pp.176-180 as www.thesocialcontract.org). Within 90 years the populations of the Middle East and North Africa will increase from 338 million to 1.16 billion (an increase of 224 per cent).
However Europe's population will fall from 419 million to 382 million (a decrease of 8.83 per cent). Italy's population could fall from its per cent figure of 57 million to 37 million by 2050 and Germany from 82 million to 65 million.
In most Middle East and North African countries women have an average of between four and six children. The median age of these populations will be young whereas Europe's will be old.

According to Bouvier and Smith, Europe's below re-placement level fertility (replacement fertility is approximately 2.1 children per woman) and increasing (non-White) immigration leads to this problem: "Put an end to immigration, and the European populations will eventually reach a level where they cannot maintain current and desired levels of economic viability. Allow unfettered growth and the new societies will no longer be French, German or Italian as we currently know them." (p.180).

Bouvier and Smith state that by the middle of the century, in about 42 years time, current trends will make Arabs an absolute majority in Europe. As typical liberals they hope that "Europe can embrace these immigrants, encourage them to assimilate and maintain much of the cultural status quo." (p.170) If, however, Europeans resist this "peaceful invasion" (Bouvier is author of "Peaceful Invasions" (1991) by gasp, "racism" - the bombings in Madrid and the current crisis in parts of Paris only hint at the potential for conflict."
Bouvier and Smith's liberalism is somewhat behind the times as there is now a substantial scholarly mainstream literature showing that "racism" , that "god in the machine" for multiculturalists, cannot explain the UK conflict between Arabs and the White Europeans. The London bombers were home grown, and most terrorists have not been "poor", but are (delete b) typically middle class. Worse yet, assimilation requires something to assimilate to. If the host European nations are simply swamped - as is occurring - then assimilation is impossible - it is an invasion. A thousand litres of oil cannot assimilate with a cup of milk.

For those who watch and monitor all that is said, note that Palestine's present population of 3.6 million will reach 12 million by 2050. If the present Middle East situation is thought to be a threat, wait for the future.
Thinkers need to begin to challenge the line of reasoning portrayed by Bouvier and Smith. Immigration must be stopped. Economic viability needs to be re-examined along social credit lines. With control of credit and the harnessing of modern technology, especially robotics, Europe can easily survive in comfort with 382 million people.
In fact it may be a way of surviving the ecological catastrophe which the Third World faces. The Third World will double its population in approximately forty years. Most of the projected ill effects of this growth - pollution, water shortages, waste disposal and food shortages, to name but a few of the problems - threaten the third World with a dramatic population crash and "die off". Europe cannot save the third World by becoming the Third World; it is better in the great life-boat of the future that some survive rather than none. As the late ecologist Garrett Hardin observed, the "promiscuous altruism" of liberals threatens to destroy us all.

The issue of the below replacement fertility of the White race needs to be addressed is we are to survive. Existing scholarly literature, does not of course address the birth dearth problem in racial terms, but it not too difficult to adopt such material to our needs. James Reed, writing some months back, mentioned a book by Phillip Longman : "The Empty Cradle" (New America Books, 2004). Longman observes that Feminism has been a major force for bringing about the demographic crash of the West; "as women gain in education and economic opportunity, people are producing fewer and fewer children." (p.8)
Paradoxically even though the Third World will double its population in just forty years, global fertility rates are about half of the 1972 levels. The issue is that the Third World will, given present trends ultimately follow the United States and Europe's fertility levels in the longer term given trends in women's education and economic opportunities. As noted above, population explosions are usually followed by population crashes. But in the short term the population explosion of the third World does threaten to engulf the West. The future belongs to those groups who have babies, to those who reject the media dogma that large families are an economic and social liability.

In our present society, Longman notes, "a professional woman is unlikely to have completed her education before her prime childbearing years are already behind her." (p.34) Consequently there has been a rise in infertility because women's fertility falls off rapidly in their thirties and gynaecologically, women are classified as "elderly" after about the age of twenty five. Thus "the most educated and most materially successful members of modern societies are those least likely to have children." (p.34) According to Longman:
"If human population does not wither away in the future, it will be because of a mutation of human culture. On our current course, more and more of the world's population will be produced by people who believe they are (or who in fact are) commanded by a higher power to procreate, or who just lack the foresight to avoid the social and economic cost of creating large families. Such a higher power might be God, speaking through Abraham, Jesus, Mohammed, or some latter day saint. Or it might be a totalitarian State. Either way, for better or for worse, such a trend, if sustained, would drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, and gradually create an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalist values." (p.35)

There is thus an evolutionary advantage to those who reject modernity. Longman then confronts the question : "how can the modern economy, the modern welfare State, and modern principles of equality be sustained in a world in which the threat of population loss becomes even more apparent?" (p.36) Longman rejects the idea that technology presents a full answer to this problem.
In chapter 9 of his book entitled "The Slowing Pace of Progress" he gives an impressive argument that despite the hype about nanotechnology and biocomputers, technology will not save the birth dearth problem. A couple living in 1952, transported to our time would be familiar with most of our daily consumer products, but a couple who time-travelled from 1900 would not.
The efficiency of a society's use of labour, capital, technology and raw materials is measured by the "total-factor productivity" statistic. For the US this statistic grew by an average of 1.08 per cent between 1913 and 1972. But from 1972-1995, even with computers, the improvement is only one-fiftieth of the 1913-1972 era.

From 1985-1999 the US became efficient at computer manufacturing (accounting for 12 per cent of the US economy) but the rates of productivity growth for everything else fell. (p.118) New technology only made a temporary contribution, but now the high tech bubble seems to have burst. Finally, even given technological improvements, because of other social conditions these improvements are often wasted. Thus worsening traffic conditions means that even with better cars it takes longer to drive from point A to point B than it did 30 years ago. (p.119)

In the article by James Reed discussing Longman's work, he refers to an article by Longman in The Australian where Longman argues that the birth dearth problem will have to be solved by a rejection of feminism and a return to patriarchy. Longman doesn't directly argue for this in "The Empty Cradle", but rather lists a number of band aid solutions (e.g. more home production).
It is clear that if humanity is to survive, then liberalism is finished. The future will be, like it or not, "fundamentalist" and "anti-modernity" in some shape or form. For Europe the question is whether the shape and form will be Arab or not; for Australia, Asian or not.

 

IMMIGRATION AND GENETIC REPLACEMENT

by Brian Simpson

Professor Frank Salter is author of "On Genetic Interests" (Peter Long, 2003). Check Amazon.com for this book and you will see that it is unavailable. You see, Salter presented a biological theory - really just commonsense - which was politically incorrect. He argued, to simplify, that ethnic groups (and races) suffer genetic losses when fellow ethnics are replaced by immigrants from another area. Genetic interests vary with the genetic distance that the immigrants have from the host population.

Using accepted sociobiological theory, namely the altruism theory of W.D. Hamilton, Salter argued that "self-sacrificial altruism is adaptive when it preserves the genetic interests of a population of genetically similar individuals." Ethnic nepotism would be adaptive when the acts serve to prevent replacement.

Thus immigration constitutes a force of ethnic genocide upon the host population. In a world of limited resources, according to this theory, immigration of genetic-others limits the genetic fitness of the host population. Hence you can see why Salter's book is "not available". But he has a readable essay in Population and Environment, vol.24, 2002 at: http://majorityrights.com/index.php/weblog/egi. Enjoy.

The open borders view of Kevin Rudd and Barak Hussein Obama, maybe America's first and last black president, is a genetic replacement position which will inevitably lead to ethnic conflict. It has only been possible to perform the great racial experiment that began in the 1960s because times have been relatively good. But as Dante observed in "The Divine Comedy", there is no greater misery than being in misery now and looking back at what one had.
The one-worlders and racial nihilists have forgotten this, and it is their fundamental mistake. It will be the Sampson that pulls down the pillars of their crumbling temple.

Open borders immigration, as advocated by the likes of Kevin Rudd, is a form of free trade of people. However, the impact of people is considerably greater than the importation of goods. It impacts upon regions for all time and as Salter has shown, can change the fundamental genetic nature of society. It usually leads to civil war.
At this stage of history, the endgame of humanity, there is no new ship for the elites to scurry up as the old ship sinks. This time they suffer with us.

Further reading:

"Fascist Europe Rising" by Rodney Atkinson

Globalisation: Demise of the Australian Nation" by Graham Strachan

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