FRASER ECONOMIC OPTIMISM SOON TO FOUNDER

"The Federal Government claimed yesterday the September quarter Consumer Price Index rise of 2.2% showed inflation was moderating." - "The Sun" (Melbourne) October 22nd, 1976.

Mr. Fraser and Mr. Lynch have stated that they confidently anticipate single digit inflation by the close of the 1976-77 financial year. That means by the end of June 1977, We cannot share their optimism. Our view is that the marginal fall in the inflation rate at the end of the September quarter is at the cost of unemployment. We have frequently in these pages referred to the "inflation-unemployment see-saw".

Under the current finance economic conventions, the general practice which obtains is that if the inflation rate rises, then unemployment falls, and vice versa. What has been happening to a significant extent is that retail prices have been "artificially" held down, particularly those of food and clothing. Factories, wholesalers, and retailers have been laying off staff, and not engaging staff, and carrying out non-management duties by executives and proprietors - this all adds up to lower costs, and it is this overall type of activity which is reflected in the marginal reduction in the C.P.I. (Consumer Price Index.)

There was a telling cartoon by "Nicholson" in "The Age" (Melbourne) Oct. 20th. It showed Mr. Lynch, the Federal Treasurer, with his finger in the cracked wall of a dam. The huge waters of the dam which are threatening to engulf him are marked - "Medibank", "Local Government Rates" etc. etc.
Another cartoon showed Mr. Fraser in the ring, wrestling with, and on top of inflation. BUT, a huge wrestler, marked "unemployment" was on top of Mr. Fraser, and squeezing him horribly.

We have stated before, and we state again, if Mr. Lynch (meaning the Commonwealth Treasury - Mr. Lynch is merely the Treasury's ventriloquist dummy - does succeed in reducing the inflation rate to a "single digit" figure, then it will be at the cost of a much higher unemployment percentage than now obtains. We repeat an unemployment rate of 7% - 8% by February next year (1977) will not surprise us.

FROM BRITISH 'ON TARGET' (October 9th, 1976)

Betrayal in South West Africa, by "Vigilia"
"The recent decision of the white Nationalists in South West Africa to accept a 'multi-national' state is far from clear in its effects. It is possible that the whites have temporarily accepted the formula to hold off the United Nations' time limit, and that there is no real intention to sell out. Nevertheless, it appears that the present South African Government would like to sell out South West Africa as well as Rhodesia if it could fool the white electorate into going along with this.

"The present Nationalist Government has been virtually taken over from the inside over the last few years by the forces of Big Money, led by Oppenheimer, and by intellectual liberalism. The extent to which these forces prevail has emerged in press reports. 'The Guardian' (August 31st, 1976) reported that the Americans had promised the South Africans a lifting of restrictions on American investment in South West Africa if it was handed over to the blacks. The fact that this should be an inducement to the South African Government indicates the extent to which the interests of Big Money, and not of South Africa, are its primary consideration.

It is of interest to note that the architect of 'hand over', one Dirk Mudge, Nationalist deputy leader in South West Africa, is described in 'The Times' (August 31st, 1976) as 'A wealthy.... landowner' who 'has emerged as something of a radical.'

In the past the Nationalists have resisted the forces of Big Money, now they do not. The forces of subversion have undermined its will to resist. Inevitably, as with the rise of the Rhodesian front in the early 1960s a new party of the Right will arise. The real danger is that Southern Africa will be in mortal danger before the electorate wakes up.

It is apparent from the recent 'atrocity' stories in 'The Guardian' and 'The Observer', the rumblings in the United Nations, the Labour Party (U.K.) and T.U.C., that all over the world a final concerted effort is being made to bring down Southern Africa. These different incidents do not 'just happen' - they axe planned and concerted."

The impending conference on the future of the government of Rhodesia is already facing severe difficulties. It will have begun at Geneva by the time supporters read these lines. Mr. Ian Smith agreed with Dr. Kissinger that the defence and security forces of Rhodesia are to remain under the control of the white Rhodesians until such time as a new Government for Rhodesia is thrashed out.

Now certain of the black leaders reject the Kissinger plan altogether, and "Britain", meaning the British Socialists, want Mr. Smith to agree to the certain extinction of white Rhodesians, as one would expect. 'What the outcome will be is not certain. Of one thing, we are sure. The "key" to the whole planned sellout of white controlled Southern Africa lies with the voters of South Africa. If the white South Africans will allow Vorster to feed Rhodesia to the crocodile, and they themselves will be next - then the situation looks grim. If the South Africans can throw Vorster, and the forces he represents off, and this is quite possible, then Southern Africa could yet be saved.

KISSINGER

GOUGH WHITLAM PREPARES FOR A REPEAT PERFORMANCE

"The good political news of recent days is that Gough Whitlam is once again looking like a credible leader of the Federal Opposition". - "The Age" (Melbourne). Editorial, October 20th, 1976.

There is no doubt that Gough Whitlam, after months of apparent dejection, has "caught the scent" of possible electoral victory. Quite significant are his recent swipes at Mr. Bob Hawke, his heir apparent, who is now being "given the elbow" by Mr. Whitlam. Mr. Whitlam's tail is either right down or right up. We all knew kids at school like that; every schoolyard has its Gough Whitlam. Like us, he knows that the Fraser-Lynch (Treasury) economic strategy can only succeed at the cost of still higher unemployment, and it is the electoral backlash from this unemployment, which will tip the Liberal-N.C.P. Coalition Government out.

The wheel has turned full circle - Mr. Whitlam has only to wait now for the Big Seat to fall into his lap; or so it appears at the moment. Last year at this time (October) Malcolm Fraser was the one in this position. Events moved more dramatically than anyone could have anticipated! We anticipate that Gough Whitlam will crow the more cheekily as the political fortunes of Messrs. Fraser and Lynch decline.

BRIEF COMMENTS

The Victorian Police Association Secretary, Inspector Tom Rippon, has asserted that lawyers of the "New Left" were responsible for the Beach inquiry into corruption in the Victorian Police Force. This is interesting. His claim clearly implied that the lawyers of the "New Left" were ideologically motivated by Communism, and that their main aim is to discredit the forces of law and order. We recall that some lawyers of immature years were most outspoken against the Governor-General, and in fact did walk out of at least one of the functions in Victoria at which Sir John Kerr was the Guest Speaker. We suspect that it is these types of young lawyers to whose Inspector Rippon refers, and we do think that there is more than a germ of truth in his remarks.

The report from the House of Representatives Select Committee on Specific Learning Difficulties shows up deficiencies in the "state of Education" in present-day Australia. Teacher training had not enough emphasis on the 3 R's; English grammar down-graded and more. Professors at various Australian universities are issuing reports that new students cannot express themselves adequately, cannot spell, and verge on the illiterate. It is astonishing that such students can even gain entrance to a university. Employer organizations continually complain that young people leaving school are ill prepared for their future careers.
We, ourselves, observe a most marked deficiency in the capacity of young people to express themselves adequately. Many can barely put a sentence together correctly, and their spelling is generally atrocious. In spite of this, the Australian Council for Educational Research (A.C.E.R) - regarded by some teachers as the elite of the teaching profession - maintains that Australian educational standards are well up with other English speaking countries. If this is so, then we say that the educational standards of those other countries have fallen alarmingly also!