A WORLD WAR OVER OIL?

"The Weekend Australian" of November 3-4 ran an article entitled "The Chances of An Oil War", introduced with a scenario of how the "Oil War of 1979" started as a result of Arab radicals mining the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the United States of America to take military action in an attempt to keep vital oil supplies flowing. This article is typical of many others, which have been appearing recently.
Unfortunately none of them direct attention to the basic cause of the Middle East crisis: the victims of the establishment of the State of Israel, the Palestinian refugees.

While the world's attention is now being directed toward new refugee problems, the Palestinian refugee problem of over 30 years duration now is ignored. But it is not being ignored throughout the Moslem world. And that world produces much of the oil, which the West insists it must have. Having played a decisive role in the establishment of the State of Israel, the Soviet strategists have subsequently exploited the situation to penetrate the Moslem world, one of the major objectives being to gain control of the oil supplies.

Over the years the West has tended to ignore the warnings of pro-Western Arabs, the result being that they have lost ally after ally. Now comes what must be seen as one of the most serious warnings of all, from Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, himself strongly pro-Western.

In a recent interview with a reporter from the Canadian Broadcasting Commission, Sheik Yamani said that his Government was increasingly concerned about the growth of Soviet military power in the region, adding, "We don't want Russians in the area, but they are invading step by step and the reason is the Arab-Israeli dispute."
Sheik Yamani expressed the fear that an oil war could start in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia being knocked out by the Soviet.

Those pro-Western Arab leaders still left have long made it clear that they are prepared to accept Israel as a Middle East State, but that it must renounce its expansion programme and agree to the Palestinians being provided with their own homeland on the West Bank of the Jordan.

The refugee situation in Kampuchea, East Timor or anywhere else, including the thousands attempting to escape from Red China into Hong Kong, must concern all civilised peoples. But unless the Palestinian refugee problem is resolved constructively, the non-Communist world could find itself in a crisis dwarfing all previous crises. Members of the Fraser Government should be asked by electors what action they are taking about the matter. For a survey of the deeper implications of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Douglas Reed's book, "The Controversy of Zion", is essential reading at this time. ($14.50 posted).

ZIMBABWE-RHODESIA AND AFRICAN REALITIES

"The Age", Melbourne, of November 5th, reports that Prime Minister Fraser has entered the dispute at the London conference concerning the future of Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, ringing President Julius Nyerere of Tanzania to get his assessment of the conference's progress and areas of possible compromise. Nyerere runs a brutal one-party dictatorship in Tanzania and has displayed a marked bias towards the Communist backed Patriotic Front.
Nyerere's statements are about as reliable as those of President Kaunda of Zambia who has recently been insisting that large numbers of South African and Rhodesian troops are in his country. No supporting evidence has been produced.

Like many others who have no understanding of African realities, Mr. Malcolm Fraser has consistently been a victim of his own ignorance about the Zimbabwe-Rhodesian situation. Chairman of the London Conference, Lord Carrington, was given a lesson about African realities when he challenged Patriotic Front leader Mugabe about his public statement that the British were not to be trusted. Mugabe replied that what he said outside the conference was not to be confused with what he said at the conference! Which moved Lord Carrington to make the tart response, "Next time I am on television I must remember that it does not matter what I say."

Those who understand African realities are well aware that it is an African characteristic to tell people what they expect or want to hear. The visitor to Rhodesia who ran out of petrol experienced a manifestation of this characteristic, one, which reflects the wide cultural gap between Africans and Europeans. When the unfortunate motorist asked an African how far to the nearest petrol supply, he was told that it was "just over the hill". So the motorist set off optimistically. But at the top of the hill there was no petrol station to be seen. He eventually obtained petrol after walking over many hills, returned and criticised the African for lying to him. The African protested, telling the motorist that he had told him what he knew he wanted to hear, had sent him on his way happy for the first part of his walk, pointing out that he would have had to walk the same distance irrespective of what he had been told!

If Mr. Fraser had gone to Zimbabwe- Rhodesia and spent a little time studying the realities, including tribal differences, he might not have become a major driving force to destroy white influence in Zimbabwe-Rhodesia. It is that influence which the "Patriotic" Front is determined to destroy.

BRIEF COMMENTS

In what can only be described as a defensive move, the Federal Council of the National Country Party decided last weekend to appoint a special four-man campaign committee to develop ways of promoting a separate NCP "image". But unless the NCP can promote constructive policies, which will halt the erosion of its rural base and unite the Australian people, its future is looking bleaker with every day that passes. Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen is the only NCP leader with sufficient national standing, and still capable of retaining a reasonably firm base, who could spearhead a genuinely independent NCP initiative. But time is running out and such an initiative will have to come soon if it is to be successful.

Perhaps the only helpful result, which will emerge from the ruthless "monetarist" policy of the British Thatcher Government, is that having produced a major depression with massive unemployment, the anticipated answers to British problems will not emerge. Winston Churchill said that the "experts" assured him in 1925 that if he forced Britain back on to the gold standard, the result would be beneficial. But, as Churchill pointed out, the result was the opposite of the predictions. One traumatic effect was the 1926 general strike. The Thatcher policy is taking Britain directly towards a revolutionary situation. It may get the inflation rate down eventually, but inflation will still continue. This is mathematically certain under present finance economic policies.

Unfortunately Mr. Bob Hawke is right when he says, "Politics and politicians have become a matter of scorn, contempt and derision amongst the majority of our people." The open conflicts between the Liberal and National Country parties, the criminal charges against Mr. Ian Sinclair, followed by the unpleasant Solomon affair in NSW, have all contributed towards a growing view that party politics is dominated by power hungry crooks. Any semblance of respect for politicians is only going to be restored when Members of Parliament make it clear that they are the servants of the electors. But electors must also accept their responsibilities. If electors do not take sufficient interest to unite to control their paid servants, they must expect a further lowering of standards and behaviour. (Recommended reading: "Our Sham Democracy", by James Guthrie. Price $1.35)

Federal Treasurer Howard said last weekend "The Government was keeping a close watch on interest rate levels in Australia." This is another way of saying that the Government is considering the possibility of further increasing the interest rate, retreating still further from another firm pre-election promise.

Mrs. Margaret Thatcher is finding it difficult to live up to her pre-election promises on the race question. The expected increase in the vote of the National Front did not take place at the British Elections in May because Mrs. Thatcher had in effect taken the anti-immigration vote from the Front with some of her statements. The Tory hardliners, some of them open supporters of Enoch Powell, are now attempting to hold Mrs. Thatcher to the party's election manifesto on immigration, designed to halt (even if not stated) coloured immigration. Australians still have time to learn from the bitter British experience. They must make immigration a major national issue before the next Federal Elections.

The attempted building up of Communist China economically by the non- Communist world has been supported on the basis that a strong Communist China would be a balance against the Soviet. But realistic anti-Communists have always posed the question, "But what if the Soviet Union and Communist China put aside their differences, even if only temporarily, while uniting to destroy the common capitalist enemy?" On September 23rd in Moscow, the Soviet and China began talks in an attempt to improve relations. The talks had been suggested by the Chinese. Both Peking and Moscow are attempting to increase their leverage on the U.S.A. as it moves into that "silly" season running through to the next Presidential Elections. A very dangerous twelve months is ahead.