POLITICAL FERMENT IN NEW ZEALAND

Mr. Eric Butler reports from Auckland New Zealand at the conclusion of a lecturing and fact finding tour of the South Island. This week he is in the North Island
"New Zealanders are astonished when told that after a short visit to New Zealand, Australian Opposition leader Dr. John Hewson and several of his senior Coalition colleagues have told Australians that the policies of the New Zealand National Government, including the General Services Tax (G.S.T.), have been successful and that Australia should follow down the same road on which New Zealand is travelling. The reality is that while Big Business and financial speculators, the paper shufflers, have improved their situations as a result of the "Free Market" programme initiated by Labour Treasurer Roger Douglas, and continued by the Bolger Nationalist Government, the standard of living of the great majority of New Zealanders has been steadily reduced. It continues to fall.

If Dr. Hewson and his colleagues had not confined themselves to the plush offices of Big Business and Government Ministers, and had gone out to meet with ordinary New Zealanders, they would, for example, have discovered that the pensioners have been so outraged by the Bolger Government policies that the Grey Power movement has developed into a powerful national protest movement led in some areas by former outstanding supporters of the National Party.

I shared a platform in Invercargill with a Grey Power leader, standing for Municipal Government on the Citizens' Initiative and Referendum (C.I.R.) policy, who had until his retirement been a widely respected businessman and strong supporter of the National Party. Like thousands of similar men throughout New Zealand, this man has left the National Party in disgust. He was critical of both Labour and National, observing that they were both following the same programme.

Also on the platform in Invercargill was Independent candidate Philip Jones, whose late father Norman Jones had represented Invercargill as a National Party member. Philip Jones was close to his father and grew up in the National party. But he has had enough of a party that is following in the footsteps of the Labour Party and "selling out" New Zealand.

The debt structure continues to escalate under the Bolger Government as it did with their Labour predecessors. As at July 24th, total debt stood at $62 billion, consisting of $22 billion government debt and $40 billion private debt. The official figures show that unemployment continues at over 11 percent, but the real figure is almost certainly higher.

Like their counterparts in Australia, sections of New Zealand business organisations are complaining that they cannot survive on the "level playing field" where they are threatened by a flood of cheap imports. During a survey of one supermarket in Richmond, I was struck with the large number of products from Communist China. The growing political ferment throughout New Zealand reflects the widespread dissatisfaction with the Bolger Government's programme. Support for the C.I.R. concept continues to grow, even inside the ranks of the National Party. Forced out of the Bolger ministry because he publicly criticised the Bolger Government's programme, high profile National Party Member Winston Peters, from Tauranga, enjoys a public opinion rating far in excess of Prime Minister Bolger, who currently cannot score even double figures. The next New Zealand elections will certainly see a major fracture of orthodox party politics.

WILL THE OPPOSITION DESTROY ITSELF?
It is clear that opinion polls on voting intentions are now not to be trusted, as voters are either deliberately lying about their intentions, or using the polls as a "clayton's by-election" opportunity to savage Government and Opposition alike, knowing that such opportunities cannot actually change governments. However, the results from some of last week's polls are certainly of no comfort to Dr. Hewson's Opposition. At a time when the most odious of Governments should be politically dead - as all agree is the case with the Victorian Government - Keating's administration is receiving substantial comfort from the polls.
It should be of the greatest concern to Coalition strategists that, although Labor's stocks are not rising, the Opposition's electoral stocks are clearly falling. In fact, one poll even showed Keating to be the preferred Prime Minister! As ascerbic Senator Peter Walsh was overheard to remark of the Opposition, "the dopey b….s could lose the election after all".

In a week when the weakness of Opposition alternative policies was further exposed, Malcolm Fraser made the telling point that the Opposition had permitted itself to become the subject of political controversy. The press is beginning to depict Hewson as a genuinely radical economic reformer. But this means that Hewson, by proposing radical change in a depression, is becoming increasingly regarded with uncertainty, even fear, by a nervous electorate. This is a tremendous dilemma for the Opposition. They have repeatedly committed themselves totally to the G.S.T., but failed to convince the electors.
On the trade/protection issue, Hewson has locked himself into a radical position from which he cannot retreat. It is out of the question for the Liberals to replace Hewson, who now seems inclined to dig himself into a political bunker, and make his inflexibility into a political virtue of determination.

PRESSURE MOUNTS FOR CHANGE ON TARIFFS
Naturally, the Prime Minister is marshalling every political skill to exploit the Opposition's dilemma. To date, Keating has not been forced to sacrifice any policy positions to make political mileage. Ever with an eye for vanity, and determined to secure his position in history, Keating is resisting mounting pressure from groups like the A.C.T.U. to give ground on tariffs. He wishes to be remembered as the Treasurer/Prime Minister who successfully internationalised the Australian economy. Nevertheless, he is even more anxious to keep his job, and there is now a better chance that the A.L.P. will retreat on tariffs than will the Opposition. If it comes to a choice between his place in history and power, he will certainly choose power, taking his chances on opportunities to re-write history later!

CRACKS IN COALITION UNITY
An important feature of Coalition campaign strategy must be "discipline". As trade spokesman Ian McLachlan, a former Sheffield Shield cricketer, has remarked, a team divided loses. But while every effort is made to present a united front to a suspicious electorate, cracks are appearing already.
In Victoria, backbencher Ken Aldred, a man of considerable courage, has strongly criticised the "Rambo-like" approach to tariffs. In South Australia, Steele Hall is publicly warning that the tariff policy could destroy the motor industry - of vital importance to South Australia. Former National Party leader Ian Sinclair is publicly criticising Dr. Hewson for failing to "sell" the zero tariff policy, and Mr. Hendy Cowan, National Party leader in W.A., makes the same criticism over the G.S.T.
In addition to this, the Queensland Sugar Industry is still threatened by tariff cuts, and the revelation last week that the North American Free Trade Agreement will give Mexican sugar growers preference on the U.S. market increases pressure on the Opposition.

The Queensland Nationals, while they did not have the courage to cross the floor and vote against Coalition policy on tariffs, are highly vocal. Dr. Hewson proposes to 'discipline' them in the Party room. Cane growers must be sacrificed for "unity" with the Liberal Party.

In the present highly volatile state of Australian politics, enormous opportunities open up for innovative grassroots campaigners. The result of the next Federal election is becoming more uncertain. Independents could yet have a key role in the next Parliament.

EUROPE AND A WORLD CENTRAL BANK

The French referendum this weekend could decide the future of the European Community as a sovereign political and economic entity. The French are being asked to support the Maastricht Treaty - effectively a "constitution" for a united Europe. A "yes" vote leads to European Monetary Union: the adoption of a common currency, and each country submitting to European "co-ordination" of their budgets, debt, exchange rates, bond yields, interest rates, etc.
Even if the French narrowly vote "yes" as observers expect, there is rising resistance to 'Maastricht' in Britain. Mr. Major must push a Bill through the House of Commons committing Britain to the Maastricht Treaty, against strong and growing Conservative Party opposition. Baroness Thatcher continues to campaign for a referendum, and one Midlands M.P. recently accused Mr. Major of running away from a debate and of a "major deceit'.

The British are under European pressure to raise interest rates, as the value of the pound is weakening. According to Andrew Clark, reporting from Europe for the Sun-Herald (13/9/92), European financial markets were in chaos last week over doubts about monetary union. He reported, in addition, that "the $US-deutschmark interest rate differential is now more than 6 percent. Last week Euromarkets went crazy. Swedish interest rates catapulted to 7.5%, the Italian Government announced emergency measures, paving the way for a siege economy. Britain intervened to defend sterling, and Finland devalued its markka by more than 15 percent. All were reacting to the collapse of their currencies, and fears that the current structure, the German led European Monetary System might collapse".

THE I.M.F. MOVES IN
In the European chaos, the International Monetary Fund has injected a new note. It calls on Germany, Japan and the U.S. to move toward "reform of the global monetary system" to bolster economic growth. The I.M.F. wants major changes in the U.S., Japan and Germany. In its annual report, it hints that these include overhauling the world's monetary system, in which market driven changes in exchange rates should be controlled, and a new Bretton Woods type conference that could perhaps produce a world central bank. This, of course, advances the programme for international controls, and the establishment of the global financial dictatorship. The experience of Europe is merely a regional founder of what is envisaged for the globe.
Electoral Comment authorised by Eric D. Butler, 145 Russell Street, Melbourne, 3000

OBSERVATIONS ON SOUTH AFRICA

The revolutionary strategy unfolding in South Africa will inevitably regard its own black supporters as so much cannon fodder. Amid the uproar over the Ciskei shooting last week, some basic considerations seem to have been lost. The Ciskei troops did not open fire "unexpectedly". As Foreign Minister Pik Botha points out, the A.N.C. knew that if demonstrators transgressed the cordons, armed clashes must result. The Australian (9/9/92) reports:
"A.N.C. radical Mr. Ronnie Kasrils, who led the first group to draw fire, admitted he had defied a court order confining the protest to a soccer stadium just across the Ciskei border. 'We were going to Bisho. That was the plan made by the A.N.C. leadership,' he said. The shooting started when Communist Party activist Kasrils breached a corner of the border cordon and ran towards soldiers prone behind automatic rifles..."

The truth is that the A.N.C. leadership is heavily dominated by the South African Communist Party. As Mandela himself then warned, armed struggle was imminent. The Bisho shooting was a victory for the Communists and the A.N.C., although their own people were sacrificed to achieve it. This will not prevent them from doing the same thing again. The campaign is designed to destabilise the leaders of the black homelands, who stand in the way to A.N.C. power. It is also certain that reports of troop brutality are exaggerated. While 28 died, reports of troops emptying thousands of rounds into 50,000 people for over two minutes indicates that either the Ciskei troops are hopeless marksmen, or that only a minority of the panicking troops were actually deliberately shooting to kill demonstrators. As in the Sharpeville "massacre" so long ago, inexperienced, outnumbered and panicking troops were successfully provoked by the A.N.C.

CORRECT TO QUERY IMMIGRATION

from Malvern-Caulfield Progress (Melbourne suburban newspaper), September 7th
I would like to pay tribute to the brave lady who challenged (A.L.P. Federal President) Barry Jones over the immigration policy he has supported and who was apparently silenced by the A.L.P. audience. "This was a strange reaction from the audience considering Mr. Jones had called for suggestions and ideas from interested groups ('People politics', August 31, Malvern-Caulfield Progress). "The lady was correct in questioning why we bring migrants into Australia when we have one million unemployed. "As Dr. Matthew Peter from Monash University Economics Department has said, it is better for our economy to just put these new arrivals on to unemployment benefits rather than try to create jobs for them (The Australian, August 27). "Of course, as the lady says, migrants can take jobs that Australians could fill - just look at the tramway staff for the accuracy of that statement, but if you want an academic dissertation on the obvious, again read Dr. Matthew Peter's article in The Australian.

"Barry Jones' statement that the Government will cut immigration from 120,000 to 80,000 this year merely reinforces the belief that the Government could not predict the disastrous results of high immigration in time to prevent the problems, and only now reacts too little and too late. "Mr. Jones does not inform his audience that as well as 80,000 migrants Australia also allows 100,000 ever renewable four-year visas per annum, extra refugees, change of status migrants, New Zealanders and thousands of illegal migrants - in all, the real number is more than 200,000 new arrivals in Australia per year.

"Israel is budgeting $55 billion for one million Russian immigrants; that is, $55,000 per migrant. To give recent arrivals an Australian standard of living is probably double that cost, and when you consider we have allowed in more than two million migrants in the past 10 years, you will understand better why Australia has a $150 billion foreign debt.

"Doubling the size of our cities and all their infrastructure may be great for the real estate agents, builders and banks, but it makes Australia poorer and lowers our quality of life. Sprawling cities, freeways, traffic jams and pollution, schools, hospitals, education facilities and social services cannot cope with more people. "The great brain power of Barry Jones does not acknowledge these problems and critics of immigration are no longer silenced by the overplayed abuse of being labeled as racists.

"It is our future and that of our children that is at stake. As long as the intellectuals have their blinkers on, and cannot see the environmental and economic consequences of continuing immigration then Australia will continue to deteriorate to a Third World standard of living. "It is not the migrants who are to blame but our own blind politicians who are unable to anticipate the very obvious consequences of bringing 200,000 people per year into Australia.

"The Liberal Party has allowed speakers from Australians Against Further Immigration to speak to its branches and debate the issue. What about the A.L.P. Mr. Jones? Why does it fear to have its members consider this issue?"
Dr. R. Spencer, Australians Against Further Immigration Party, 22 Armadale Street, Armadale, Vic.

BEWARE ANY BILL OF RIGHTS

from The Australian, September 7th
Three cheers to the High Court for axing the Labor Party's cynical and dangerous Political Ad Plan Bill (A Victory for Free Speech, 29/8). Now the major threat to our freedom becomes government moves to 'grant' us a bill of rights. "In a constitutional system such as ours, it is the people that grant the privilege to politicians to serve us, to 'enact the will of the people'. Every nation; where the government hands out 'rights' by the bucket load is, or soon becomes, a dictatorship. Rights are equal for all privileges granted by governments are a sop to pressure groups at the expense of others in the community.

"To live in genuine freedom according to a constitution of liberty - Each of us is guaranteed: The right to life; freedom of speech, thought and belief and the right to own private property. "No person, group or government has the right to initiate the use of force, fraud or coercion against any person or group of people, and individuals accept responsibility for their own actions. "Clip these out and compare them to any 'rights' being proposed by your State or Federal Governments, as well as those being bandied about in the global arena. Check the fine print very carefully. There should not be any 'ifs, and, buts' or special privileges. Organisations or politicians that do not accept the above concepts as your natural birthright are being influenced by those pressure groups who want to dominate you by force of government. Any proposals should be clear and easy to understand. If there is any doubt - chuck em out." (Dr. Peter Brandson, Batehaven, N.S.W.)

MULTICULTURALISM

INFLATION

from The Morning Bulletin (Rockhampton), Qld., August 5th
Keating and Co. are handing themselves gold medals for a low inflation figure. They are optimistically assuming to 'lock in' to this figure, while of course retaining their old salaries. Under present financial rules they will only do this by ensuring that primary producers continue to exist on negative incomes, that no other businesses continue to discount prices to unprofitable levels, and unemployment remains high. They do not understand that unemployment and low profitability on the one hand, and inflation on the other, are on a seesaw; one down, the other up.

"It is interesting to note that the figures for inflation released on July 29th were substantially influenced by lower mortgage rates. This is the opposite to what the economists were telling us when interest rates were being pushed up. High interest rates were supposed to bring inflation under control. "One purveyor of voodoo economics even commented that inflation was down because fresh fruit (prices) were down due to the good weather! Do I hear peals of laughter from primary producers?" (Ron Fischer, Capella, Qld.)