Alexander Maistrovoy is the author of Agony of Hercules or a Farewell to Democracy (Notes of a Stranger), and he puts the case that the West using the Ukraine conflict to cripple Russia, if not lead to its collapse, will have the effect of driving Russia firmly into china’s orbit, which is already occurring now. Russia will thus cease to be a buffer between the West and Asia, especially the Islamic sphere. As Maistrovoy says: “There are large Muslim enclaves in Russia itself, including Chechnya, other Caucasian republics and the Volga republics: Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and others. Islamic radical groups, branches of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis operate everywhere here. In the event of a losing or weakening of control from the Kremlin, they inevitably (as in other failed states) try to create a series of “caliphates,” like the Islamic State. With the support of the gigantic Muslim communities in Russia’s major cities, they will get a base for further advances to the West. In such a case, they will get assistance from Turkey, which regards significant parts of Ukraine and Russia as a natural part of the new Ottoman Caliphate. Crimea, the historical vassal of Turkey, will be drawn into the orbit of the new “Sublime Porte” too.
The regimes of Central Asia are to a large extent supported by Russian bayonets. If Moscow withdraws from the region, the Afghan Taliban, successfully brought back to power by President Biden and his team, will immediately fill the resulting vacuum. The huge territories of largely artificial states, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and others, will turn into a single “caliphate” and a natural reserve for terrorist groups. At the same time, masses of refugees from these countries will rush to the West in search of salvation. Compared to these unrestrained flows, the migration of 2015 will be child’s play.”